22. Black Swan Event

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Tuesday, November 13th—2:16 p.m.

1,307 words. Approximate reading time: 6 minutes, 32 seconds.

“Well, it’s hard to really pin down any one event,” Dr. Reynolds responded to the audience member. “Most of the records we have are from the Free States; New Medeo’s were almost all destroyed in the eventual uprising. But there were plenty of people that entered the Free States as refugees in those last few years, so we rely on those accounts to get an idea of what was really going on within New Medeo.

“What’s important to remember is that, while there is usually something we can point to that actually caused ‘the spark,’ as it were, there are often underlying tensions that go back several years. When historians say that the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand set in motion the events of World War I, they mean that was ‘the spark.’ The actual causes that led up to that event go back further.

“What we found in the accounts of refugees and of Free State government officials points, similarly, to a single death being the spark that set the entire chain of events into motion. Most interestingly, that death was initially overlooked by the public at large. It was, after all, one of those routine deaths that we are told occurred with staggering regularity in New Medeo. A citizen was found walking outside and was summarily executed for failure to abide by New Medeo’s laws.

“We actually don’t even know this citizen’s name, or why she in particular was the catalyst, as, again, the information that we’ve learned from refugee interviews tell us that this was not an uncommon occurrence. New Medeo, founded as a state focused on medical and personal safety for its citizens, had adopted policies that are still controversial to this day. Initially, citizens were quarantined to their house and directed to work from home as much as possible. They weren’t absolutely restricted in their movement at first, but were highly encouraged to stay home and avoid other people.

“Eventually, as New Medeo methodically gathered data on all of its citizens, a schedule was created for its people to follow, so that they may experience fresh air and exercise while still being able to avoid other people. As time went on, many citizens continued to express fear around even the precautions that were put in place. The New Medeo government placed an emphasis on expanding virtual reality technology and drone shipments for goods, working with major corporations that were headquartered there. The speed of development on these items was unprecedented, and within a few years no citizen had any real reason to leave their home. So, for public safety, leaving one’s home was forbidden.

“Any citizens that were found outside of their homes were considered disease vectors and were executed on sight. After the first few of these, most citizens were sufficiently afraid to leave their homes (and really, a large portion of them were actually reporting happiness at not having to leave their homes). So the deaths became unnewsworthy, unless the government or the corporations felt the need to reassert the fear in their citizens.

“So, while we can point to the execution of an unknown New Medean as the catalyst that set events in motion, it goes far deeper than that. The biggest questions that we have to ask are why did the citizens tolerate this for so long, and why exactly was this one execution the straw that broke the camel’s back, so to speak? Unfortunately, we don’t have direct answers for that right now. Hopefully, as we expand upon our knowledge of digital archaeology, we can unearth more.

“For now, we have reports from former citizens that there existed certain spaces inside the virtual reality world that were, for all intents and purposes, hidden from the corporation that managed that world. It seems unlikely until you realize that the virtual reality world was robust enough to effectively replace the physical world in most instances. The entire idea behind the push into better and better virtual reality was to provide the citizens with a way to still socialize despite not being afforded the ability to physically congregate.

“So, small groups of citizens that were not satisfied with the status quo would attempt to hold clandestine meetings in the virtual reality space. Many of these attempts were unsuccessful, and the corporation shut down those spaces as well as the access of any individuals that were associated with those spaces. For New Medeans, this was effectively a death sentence, as they would be unable to access any municipal or corporate services, including grocery delivery.

“Like with the executions, these disconnections were broadcast to the public at large as a warning. But as time went on, more and more citizens, especially the older citizens that lived in the time before the disease, became disillusioned with the world they were living in. More clandestine meetings and disconnections were to follow, until a group managed to finally create a space that was hidden from the corporate eye.

“This group, calling themselves The Returners, rallied themselves into action after the execution of the unknown New Medean, though no one as of yet knows why. Group members totalling in the hundreds left their homes, risking execution (and indeed, many did get executed), and congregated in an abandoned skyscraper just outside of New Medeo’s capital.

“This is around the time that many citizens, fearing for their lives, attempted to take refuge in the Free States and the Quarantine Zones. And that’s about the extent of what we know. The Returners succeeded in their mission of liberating New Medeo from government and corporate control, but were ultimately unsuccessful in building a new state, as group in-fighting saw New Medeo split into two states, and the resulting civil war left both states in shambles.

“The Free States and the Quarantine Zones, in turn, joined together to absorb what was left of New Medeo and create a single unified state, just thirty years after the civil war that split New Medeo and the Free States. What’s interesting here is that the Free States, which experienced heavy blows in the war to infrastructure and, as a result of those along with embargos from most of the world’s countries, were left in an almost Wild West frontier state, didn’t have the same problems with its citizens. The Quarantine Zones, which similarly lacked technology after the successful uprising by quarantined citizens, also managed to maintain some semblance of peace amongst their various scattered zones.

“The difference, it seems, between New Medeo and the Free States and Quarantine Zones, is really about the connection of its citizens to each other. While New Medeo’s citizens were all constantly connected, they were also, if reports are to be believed, constantly divided over minor matters. In the Free States and Quarantine Zones, the only connection between various cities or zones was in the form of traders that passed from area to area, keeping citizens abreast of various news of the day.

“I’m aware that I’m rambling a bit, but hopefully you can appreciate what I mean when I say that it’s difficult to pinpoint any one event, though we give our best guess in the execution of the unknown New Medean. We can point further back to the appearance of the Disease, or to the civil war that created New Medeo and the Free States. We can even point to New Medeo’s policies and citizen dissatisfaction. It’s best, really, to look at the situation as a whole—one of the main reasons why digital archaeologists are so fascinated with New Medeo is because of how unprecedented the state’s creation was, and how quickly, in the grand scheme of things, it was dissolved.”

“Thank you, Dr. Reynolds,” the moderator said, “for your thoughtful and detailed response. Does anyone else in the audience have a question for any of our panelists? Yes, you, in the third row. Please step up to the microphone and introduce yourself.”